Prediction Markets Favor Walz over Vance in VP Debate

Hours before tonight’s vice presidential debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance, prediction markets are strongly leaning toward the incumbent veep.

Some 72% of Polymarket bettors believe Harris will win. Polymarket is far and away the biggest prediction market, which did more than $533 million in volume last month, per Dune, an analytics platform. (Nearly 90% of its traffic is politics related.) Smaller markets also predicted that Harris would win, including Manifold Markets where she was favored by 76% of the betting.

Prediction markets are also betting on which hot-button topic, including abortion or immigration, will get a mention by Vance and Walz. The top phrases Vance is expected to say, according to Polymarket, are inflation with 95%, abortion with 92%, and the Border (5+ times) with 90%. For Walz, the top phrases he is expected to say are abortion with 95%, Israel with 92%, and gun with 87%.

Some 17% of the betting money was placed on Waltz uttering the word “tampon” during the debate, a reference to the governor’s apparently controversial move to ensure that female sanitary products were available in all public school restrooms.

On Manifold, the top bets are will Walz and Vance shake hands with 96%, mention of the Iran-Israel conflict with 94%, Vance saying “socialism” or “socialist” with 92%, and anyone mentioning Hurricane Helene with 91%.

While betting on politics is illegal in the United States, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, on BetOnline, an offshore betting platform, Walz is favored to win the debate, with odds of -225, meaning a bettor would need to wager $225 to win $100. In contrast, Vance is considered the underdog with +165 odds, meaning a $100 bet on Vance would return $165 if he won.

Of course cringe is also on the table beyond Polymarket. According to BetOnline, Walz or Vance saying the word “cat” or “cats” first (a reference to Vance saying that Springfield immigrants ate pets) carries -400 and +250 odds, respectively.

Unlike the presidential debate last month, most people believe the battle of the second bananas will be amicable. Bettors at BetOnline, Polymarket, and Manifold overwhelmingly believe the two candidates will shake hands.

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