Will Bitcoin price recover in July?

Bitcoin ($BTC) is heading for its worst monthly loss since mid-2022, with $BTC down roughly 18.5% in June as price struggles to hold the psychological $60,000 support level.

$BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Will Bitcoin’s downside momentum extend in July, or is $BTC preparing for a recovery?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s liquidity map shows a major short-liquidation “magnet zone” near $67,600.
• $BTC has historically gained 7.6% on average in July, while midterm-year seasonality points to an even stronger 10.3% average return.

Bitcoin may hit $75,000 in July

July may become a “bullish month for Bitcoin,” according to analyst Fleh, who predicted $BTC price to rally toward $75,000 next month.

The bullish thesis is based on Bitcoin’s Binance $BTC/$USDT liquidation heatmap, which shows a large concentration of short liquidation levels sitting above the current price.

On the monthly chart, the strongest visible liquidity cluster sits near $67,645, where the chart shows around $247.39 million in liquidation leverage and roughly $2.26 billion in cumulative short liquidation leverage.

Binance $BTC/$USDT liquidation heatmap (1 month). Source: CoinGlass

For beginners, such clusters are often called “magnet zones.” When many leveraged positions are concentrated around the same price area, the market can move toward that zone because liquidations create forced buying or selling pressure.

In this case, significant liquidity sits above Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000.

If $BTC rebounds and pushes toward $67,600, short sellers may be forced to close their positions. Since closing shorts requires buying Bitcoin back, that can add fresh upside pressure and fuel a short squeeze.

“I think $BTC bottoms here at 60k for now, targeting 75k to the upside before any chance of lower,” Fleh said in a Saturday post.

$BTC rises 7.6% on average in July

Bitcoin’s historical monthly returns also support Fleh’s bullish July outlook.

$BTC has returned a 7.6% gain on average in July, making it one of its stronger months after a typically weaker June, which shows an average return of -1.40%, according to CoinGlass data highlighted by analyst CGT_Trader.

Bitcoin monthly returns tracking the July performance in since 2013. Source: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader

The trend has appeared even during bear market years.

For instance, Bitcoin rose 20.96% in July 2018 and 16.8% in July 2022. More recently, $BTC gained 2.95% in July 2024 and 8.13% in July 2025, strengthening the case for another green month ahead.

A separate midterm-year seasonality chart also shows that- Bitcoin has averaged a 10.3% gain during the month, its strongest monthly return in such years.

Bitcoin performance by month during US mid-term election years. Source: More Crypto Online

That compares with an average 17% loss in June, pointing to the possibility of a post-sell-off mean-reversion bounce.

Based on Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000, its historical July average return of 7.6% projects a move toward roughly $64,500, while the stronger midterm-year average of 10.3% points to about $66,100.

A repeat of Bitcoin’s bear-market July rebounds from 2022 and 2018 would put $BTC between $70,000 and $72,500, while a 2020-style July rally would bring Fleh’s $75,000 target within reach.

$BTC’s dip below the 200-week SMA may extend slide

Bitcoin’s ongoing drop below its 200-week simple moving average (200-day SMA, the blue line) near $62,445 raises the risk of further downside in July.

$BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

A similar loss of long-term moving-average support preceded deeper weakness during the 2022 bear market, when $BTC continued lower before forming a bottom.

Bitcoin’s bear flag breakdown raises the odds of a price decline toward $55,000 in July unless $BTC quickly reclaims the 200-day SMA.

$BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

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