Reverse Indicator in Bitcoin! It Needs to Fall for an Uptrend!

The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), is still expected to remain below the critical level of $100,000 in the final days of 2025.

While BTC remains stuck between $85,000 and $90,000, margin long positions on BTC on Bitfinex have reached their highest level since early 2024.

According to Coindesk, margin long positions on Bitcoin on the Bitfinex exchange have reached their highest level since the beginning of 2024.

According to the data, the total number of positions is currently around 72,700 BTC, showing a significant increase from the approximately 55,000 BTC level at the beginning of October.

This level is similar to the period just before BTC reached its peak of $73,000 in March of last year.

This situation indicates that during the period when the Bitcoin price dropped from over $126,000 to $89,000, buying activity increased, purchases were continuous, and investors saw the dip as a buying opportunity.

However, examining past cycles, analysts have found that Bitfinex long positions often act as a counterintuitive indicator.

Historically, the true bottoms of the market have occurred when long positions on Bitfinex peak and then decrease significantly. Historical data shows that these long positions typically peak when the market is under pressure and then decline as soon as a new uptrend begins.

In this context, in past cycles, the sustained decline in leveraged long positions has coincided with market lows or the initial stages of recovery.

According to this model, during the yen carry trade unwinding process in August 2024, Bitcoin bottomed out at approximately $49,000, coinciding with a sharp decline in leveraged long positions on Bitfinex.

A similar pattern was observed during the sell-off triggered by tariffs in April 2025. Leveraged long positions saw a decline as the BTC price bottomed out at $75,000.

While these events suggest a bottoming out in Bitcoin’s long positions, such a bottom signal has yet to materialize.

While investors are hoping for an end to the downward trend that has continued since October, the sustained increase in leveraged trading currently suggests that BTC prices have not yet reached their bottom.

*This is not investment advice.

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