Bitcoin Tests 50-Week MA Cluster as ETF Inflows Stay Firm

Bitcoin opened a key week with U.S. spot ETF inflows running slightly ahead of last year’s pace. Meanwhile, BTC hovered under the 50 week MA and EMA cluster, setting up a near term reclaim or another rejection.

Bitcoin ETF inflows edge ahead of last year as early 2026 trend tracks history

Bitcoin spot ETF inflows in the U.S. reached about 3.8K BTC so far this year, moving ahead of the roughly 3.5K BTC recorded over the same period last year, according to data shared by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The chart showed cumulative inflows for early 2026 running slightly above the 2025 line at the same point on the calendar.

Bitcoin Net Cumulative Inflows to US Spot ETFs by Year. Source: CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju

At the same time, the data placed the current pace within a familiar seasonal pattern. Historically, January tends to see relatively modest ETF inflows, while stronger accumulation usually begins later in the first quarter. Past cycles highlighted larger inflow waves forming between February and April rather than at the very start of the year.

The comparison across years suggested that early 2026 remains broadly aligned with prior trends despite the year over year uptick. As a result, the inflow trajectory implied that the more decisive phase of ETF driven demand may still lie ahead, based on how previous cycles developed once the first quarter progressed.

Bitcoin faces a key test near the 50 week moving average cluster

Meanwhile, Bitcoin entered an important technical week as price hovered just below the 50 week moving average and exponential moving average cluster, according to a chart shared by analyst Jelle, known on X as CryptoJelleNL. The TradingView chart showed BTC consolidating after a pullback from recent highs, with price trading near the mid $90,000s at the time of the snapshot.

Bitcoin 50 Week MA EMA Cluster Chart. Source: CryptoJelleNL

The chart highlighted the 50 week MA and EMA as a key decision zone that has historically shaped medium term trend direction. A sustained move back above this band would signal strength after the recent correction and reinforce the broader uptrend that started in late 2023. In contrast, repeated failure at this level would suggest continued hesitation and raise the risk of deeper consolidation.

Price action on the weekly timeframe showed Bitcoin still holding above its longer term rising structure despite recent volatility. The moving average cluster sat just overhead, making the coming sessions critical for defining whether buyers can regain control or whether sellers keep pressure intact near resistance.

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