Bitcoin slips as traders lift July Fed rate hike bets ahead of Inflation report

Major cryptocurrencies have come under pressure, reflecting heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase as soon as July, just ahead of key U.S. inflation data and congressional testimony from Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bitcoin BTC$62,465.50 has dropped by over 2% in 24 hours to $62,380. Ether (ETH), $XRP ($XRP) and other tokens are also nursing similar losses, according to CoinDesk data.

Money markets now assign roughly a 50% probability to a Fed rate hike this month, according to Bloomberg data, up sharply from about 10% just days ago. The shift follows remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller that officials may need to raise rates to bring price pressures under control.

The repricing rippled through fixed-income markets, pushing the two-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.29%, its highest level since early last year. That part of the yield curve is especially sensitive to shifts in near-term policy expectations.

The renewed hawkish tilt stems in part from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a sharp climb in oil prices. President Donald Trump reinstated a U.S. blockade of Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% reimbursement fee on all other cargo passing through the critical waterway.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures have surged to nearly $80 a barrel from $67 at the start of the month, stoking fresh concerns about inflation.

Focus on CPI and Warsh testimony

Investors will receive a fresh read on price pressures Tuesday when the Labor Department releases the June consumer-price index at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast that headline CPI will fall below a 4% annual rate. The report is expected to show the first declines in both headline and core inflation since January, following May’s readings of 4.2% and 2.9%, respectively.

Even if the figures meet expectations, they risk being viewed as backward-looking in light of the recent oil price surge. Should inflation instead prove more persistent, the data could amplify concerns about the Fed’s path forward.

Attention will then turn to Mr. Warsh’s testimony on Capitol Hill. Given the Fed chair’s preference for limited forward guidance, investors will be watching closely for any signals on rates and inflation.

According to analysts at ING, he could “if he chooses, emphasize the tameness of inflation expectations.”

They added that Mr. Warsh “has enough ammunition here to ride the rate hike risk and instead hold pat. Even if he comes under pressure to hike, the richness attached to the 5yr part of the curve tells us that any hike (if delivered) is likely to be subsequently reversed, with the prospect still for bigger cuts than hikes.”

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