Bitcoin Market Not Positioned for Upside Despite Rally Above $80K, Says Bitfinex

Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently on a roll, surging past the $80,000 mark and touching base above $81,000. While this rally could be a reason for positive sentiment, market experts believe otherwise.

In a weekly report from the crypto exchange Bitfinex, analysts warned that bitcoin’s rally to $80,000 is misleading because the market is not positioned for upside movement. According to the analysts, $BTC is currently stuck between bulls and bears, conviction and caution. Considering market conditions, the leading digital asset is likely to lean toward the negative rather than the positive.

A Misleading Rally

To substantiate their claims, the Bitfinex analysts highlighted an improving but uneven demand wave. Based on historical data, $BTC rallies have been sustained by strong demand, but that is not the case this time.

Underlying demand is improving with steady inflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and continued accumulation from institutions like Strategy. However, the demand is not strong enough to absorb the overhead supply and confirm a sustained breakout. In fact, $BTC is in a fragile yet constructive range, with short-term holders taking profits as they exit positions near breakeven.

“This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets: whenever the price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum,” analysts stated.

Bitcoin requires heavy spot-led demand to sustain a rally. However, with a divided macro environment, no clear liquidity tailwind, and ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East, that may seem unlikely in the short term.

$BTC Bias Tilts Toward Downward Pressure

Furthermore, bitcoin’s ongoing breakout stalled at the $78,000-$79,000 resistance zone, not because of aggressive selling but due to profit-taking by short-term holders. This zone is dense and defined by metrics like the True Market Mean, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and the weekly open. These indicators also double as support and resistance levels.

With the resistance confirming overhead challenges, Bitfinex believes the bias tilts toward further downward pressure. At the same time, analysts see the potential for a breakout from current resistance levels as ETF inflows and institutional accumulation continue.

A failure to reclaim and hold above the current resistance levels will keep the low $70,000s as the next key support zone, sustaining a downward momentum for $BTC.

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