Bitcoin falls to local low of $61.4K as key data signals major bearish turn

Bitcoin [$BTC] fell by another 3.9% in the last 24 hours, extending its price plunge to a local low of $61.4K. Strategy announced a 32 $BTC sale, the first since 2022. Heavy spot ETF outflows helped drive the price even lower.

As expected, this caused a lot of capitulation, especially from short-term holders who bought during the rally of the past three months.

AMBCrypto had warned that a cascade of long liquidations could hit the market, especially since it was already reeling under hefty selling pressure. Other metrics pointed to reduced demand and greater distribution from holders.

Exploring the Bitcoin bearish regime shift

Source: Axel Adler Jr

The impulse performance metric has a fast and slow impulse component. Both were bearish after the downturn over the past two weeks. The fast impulse was near -90, and the slow impulse had fallen to -59, according to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr.

It underlined deteriorating Bitcoin market conditions. The current regime has been firmly bearish, and the slow impulse would need to climb back into positive territory to signal a regime shift.

Source: Axel Adler Jr

The shifting regime was backed by a change in the taker demand trends. Since March, aggressive buyers had kept the 30-day net taker volume position in positive territory. The histogram turned negative recently though.

The relief rally had been fueled by hopeful buyers, but this demand has since been exhausted. The impulse and net taker volumes confirmed a bearish scenario in progress that can be hard to recover from.

In a post on X, analyst Darkfost pointed out that $BTC exchange flows have dramatically altered direction. In April, there was a weekly outflow of 2,500 $BTC. Recently, this weekly average turned into a 2,410 $BTC inflow.

The hike in exchange inflows indicated heightened selling pressure. At a time when the U.S stock market is soaring, falling crypto trends can hasten investors jumping ship.

Source: CryptoQuant

The drop in the Coinbase Premium Index in recent weeks reflected the lack of willingness from U.S-based investors to pay a premium for $BTC. In other words, demand could be drying up, and conviction may be low.

Final Summary

• The slow impulse metric’s shift highlighted a bearish regime shift, in line with the higher timeframe downtrend.
• Falling Coinbase Premiums and bearish net taker volumes underlined the selling pressure on $BTC.

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