Bitcoin Could Drop to $44K by Late October, Mining Pool Founder Predicts

By admin On Aug 6, 2026

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the China-rooted mining pool $BTC.top, has projected that Bitcoin could fall to $44,016 by late October, citing historical patterns in the cryptocurrency’s four-year market cycle. His analysis suggests that the current bear market has not yet matched previous downturns in either duration or depth, indicating further downside may be ahead.

Historical Cycle Comparison

Jiang’s forecast is based on a comparison of Bitcoin’s past three bear markets, which all exhibited similar timeframes and drawdowns. According to his data, the maximum declines in those cycles were 86.9%, 84.1%, and 77.6%, respectively. In the current cycle, he projects a 65.1% drop from the all-time high, which would place $BTC at $44,016 by late October.

Implications for Investors

If this prediction materializes, it would represent a significant decline from current levels, potentially testing investor patience and market sentiment. However, it’s important to note that such cycle-based projections are not guarantees, and market conditions can shift due to macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, or technological advancements.

Why This Matters

Understanding cycle patterns can help investors frame their expectations and risk management strategies. While historical trends offer useful context, they should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile and subject to external influences.

Conclusion

Jiang Zhuoer’s prediction adds to a growing chorus of analysts who see further downside potential in Bitcoin before the next halving event. Whether or not the $44,016 target is reached, the analysis underscores the importance of cycle awareness in crypto investing.

FAQs

Q1: What is the basis for Jiang Zhuoer’s Bitcoin price prediction?
Jiang bases his prediction on historical bear market patterns, comparing the duration and drawdowns of previous cycles to the current one.

Q2: How reliable are cycle-based predictions for Bitcoin?
While historical cycles provide useful context, they are not foolproof. Market dynamics, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic factors can alter outcomes.

Q3: What should investors do with this information?
Investors should consider such predictions as one input among many, focusing on risk management and long-term strategies rather than short-term price targets.