Toncoin corrects 15% from $2.90 zenith: Here’s why deeper pullback is likely

Toncoin [$TON] managed to reach a high of $2.90 on Thursday, the 7th of May, shortly after AMBCrypto had warned traders and investors against FOMO when the token was trading at $2.11.

The speed of the move saw nearly $29 million in short positions wiped out in two days when $TON reached the $2.90 zenith last week, according to CoinGlass data. Since this peak, it has witnessed a 15.6% correction, but its swing structure remained bullish across lower and higher timeframes.

The demand has been robust enough to absorb the $103 million token unlock. As things stand, it is likely that the impulse move higher has run its course and was headed toward a retracement.

The move came on the back of the news that Telegram had replaced $TON Foundation as the network’s largest validator.

Here’s how traders can navigate the next Toncoin price moves.

Buyers will be eagerly awaiting the Toncoin pullback

Source: $TON/$USDT on TradingView

In a recent report, the extent of the $TON move was unclear, but a set of Fibonacci extension levels had been plotted. The 161.8% extension level at $2.46 has been surpassed, and the RSI was correcting from multi-month highs.

It was also clear that the swing structure has been shifted bullishly.

Source: $TON/$USDT on TradingView

To understand the upcoming pullback, another set of retracement levels was plotted using the swing low and high of the move. Based on how the price action was progressing, a pullback to $2.01, the 50% retracement level, appeared likely.

The drop could extend to the $1.5-$1.8 golden pocket between the 78.6% and 61.8% retracement levels.

Such a correction would offer swing traders and investors a chance to re-enter the $TON market.

Source: CoinGlass

Within the past few days, multiple sizeable pockets of short liquidation have built up above $2.50. Market participants appeared to be anticipating a deeper retracement, which might result in a short squeeze before a pullback.

This was one of the two scenarios traders have to be wary of, a short squeeze toward $3. The other scenario is a failure to succeed with bullish continuation.

As an altcoin, $TON is highly influenced by crypto market sentiment and Bitcoin [$BTC] price trends. The long-term $BTC trend remained bearish, and the rally to $80k can be regarded as a bear market move.

If the rest of 2026 conforms to this bearish picture, buying $TON in a pullback could turn out to be a costly mistake.

Therefore, Toncoin traders and investors can be bullish, based on the evidence at hand. They will also have to be ready to cut losses in case the market’s tides turn.

Final Summary

• The demand for Toncoin has been strong, driving a rally nearly as high as $3 in May.
• A pullback toward $1.5 was possible in the coming weeks, but it remains to be seen if it would present a buying opportunity.

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