Ethena earnings hit 8-month high – Why ENA still faces downside risk

Ethena [$ENA] has posted a struggling price performance in the past day despite the protocol recording its highest monthly earnings in eight months.

Demand continues to build at the fundamental level, but the probability of a rally remains slim. However, a key demand zone on the chart could lift price significantly if it holds.

Decoding Ethena’s monthly earnings

Ethena’s earnings have now reached the highest level since September 2025. According to its earnings report, which tracks profitability, Ethena generated about $605,000 in just the first seventeen days of this month.

Earnings data of this nature often signals that a protocol is performing positively and adds further incentive for investors to accumulate or maintain a long-term position in $ENA.

Source: DeFiLlama

That long-term view is already in motion, as reflected by the Total Value Locked (TVL).

TVL measures the total value of crypto assets deposited into a protocol’s smart contracts, spanning liquidity provision, lending, and yield generation. A rising TVL typically signals growing user confidence in the protocol and increasing demand for its products.

Notably, Ethena’s TVL has risen by about $998 million since the 23rd of April, reflecting growing investor confidence as more capital is deployed into the protocol and signaling belief in its near‑ to long‑term utility.

Spot investors accumulate

Spot market investors have shown clear and active interest in acquiring $ENA, according to CoinGlass spot exchange netflow data.

The spot netflow over the past ten days shows cumulative outflows of roughly $140 million. This growing trend of investors acquiring $ENA through its highs and lows within this period is typically associated with bullish accumulation behavior.

Source: CoinGlass

However, the perpetual market tells a different story. A consistent pattern has emerged pointing to an anticipated decline, with short positions rising over the same period to capitalize on expected downside.

Perpetual market netflow over the past ten days has reached $819 million in outflows, reflecting the scale of this positioning. The Funding Rate has since turned negative, confirming that short traders are currently in control.

Given their profitable track record, there is a reasonable probability they are correctly reading the near-term direction.

$ENA trades on slim support with a 30% upside target

On the chart, $ENA shows a tendency for a rebound to the upside from its current position.

At the time of writing, the asset is trading on a slim support level, and a rally from this level could yield a 30% gain for the asset.

However, if perpetual trader pressure intensifies, $ENA could swing even lower, dropping toward a deeper demand zone before staging an upswing toward the target marked above. For now, structurally, the asset appears positioned for a major rally.

Source: TradingView

Final Summary

• Ethena has generated $456,000 in monthly earnings, its highest reading since September 2025.
• Spot investors have recorded a cumulative $139 million in outflows over the past ten days.

Source