Dogecoin ADX Pattern Resembles 2020 Setup, Eyes Now on $4.5 or More

Analyst identifies Dogecoin weekly ADX mirroring 2020 setup ahead of its last major rally.

Notably, Dogecoin (DOGE) has declined by 2.22% in the past 24 hours, trading at $0.1737, and remains down by 9.08% over the last seven days.

However, according to a recent analysis, the Average Directional Index (ADX) on Dogecoin’s weekly chart may be pointing to a developing trend shift. The ADX, used to measure trend strength, is now replicating a historical setup from late 2020 that preceded a major rally.

ADX Weekly Setup Mirrors 2020 Pre-Rally Conditions

Tardigrade, a crypto analyst, has presented a breakdown of Dogecoin’s ADX behavior over time. His analysis shows that the current ADX pattern on the weekly timeframe closely resembles the structure seen between 2019 and 2020.

Dogecoin ADX | Trader Tardigrade

Back then, DOGE’s ADX started with a lower launch, indicated with a green arrow, then formed two mid-level peaks followed by a lower low, before surging to a top. This move aligned with Dogecoin’s breakout from $0.0025 in November 2020 to nearly $0.70 by May 2021.

Fast-forward to the 2024–2025 period, the ADX has again launched from a low, then formed two mid-level peaks—first when DOGE reached $0.22 in May 2024, and then $0.46 in December 2024. After those peaks, the ADX dipped to a lower low, which Tardigrade illustrated with a purple arrow on his chart.

Currently, the ADX is rising again. A projected blue circle placed above the indicator suggests an anticipated breakout, which historically marked the top of a bullish trend. This potential breakout, if mirrored from the past, coincides with a speculative DOGE price around $4.50—about 2,491% above the current price.

MVRV Score Signals DOGE Still in Bear Market Territory

Meanwhile, another analyst, Kevin, has highlighted Dogecoin’s MVRV score as still being within bear market territory. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) has reached only 3.5 in this cycle.

In contrast, DOGE peaked at an MVRV of 11 during 2017 and 16 during 2021, both of which marked full-scale bull runs. According to Kevin’s observation, this relatively low MVRV figure indicates that Dogecoin and the broader altcoin market have yet to experience a sustained upward cycle in the current market environment.

The analyst links this delay in altcoin performance to continued restrictive monetary policy and post-pandemic central bank adjustments. These macroeconomic conditions have, in Kevin’s view, contributed to a more measured pace for altcoin momentum, delaying the kind of explosive rallies seen in prior cycles.

He stated that this situation will eventually shift, allowing altcoins to gain momentum. He added that investors should aim to buy altcoins at lower valuations and avoid emotional attachment to their holdings.

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