Crypto market prediction ahead of U.S. Supreme Court tariff decision on Feb 20

Crypto markets are heading into a potentially volatile week as investors brace for the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff decision scheduled for Feb. 20.

Summary

• Crypto markets are bracing for volatility ahead of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Feb. 20 tariff decision, which could influence broader risk sentiment and dollar strength.
• The total crypto market cap remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, signaling a corrective structure, while RSI suggests selling pressure is easing.
• A weakening U.S. Dollar Index could support a short-term crypto rebound, with Bitcoin showing relative resilience and Ethereum more sensitive to macro shifts.

The ruling could determine the legality or scope of contested trade measures, a development that may ripple across equities, commodities, foreign exchange and, increasingly, digital assets.

U.S. Supreme Court tariff decision looms over risk assets

Tariff decisions tend to influence broader macro sentiment rather than crypto directly. In past episodes of trade tension, markets initially reacted with a risk-off tone, strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring equities.

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Crypto has historically responded in two phases: an immediate liquidity-driven pullback alongside other risk assets, followed by a divergence when investors rotate toward alternative stores of value.

During earlier trade escalations, Bitcoin fell in tandem with stocks before stabilizing as dollar strength faded. The key transmission channel has often been the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

A stronger dollar tightens global liquidity, which can weigh on speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies. Conversely, dollar weakness has tended to support risk appetite.

With markets already fragile after a volatile start to February, the Feb. 20 ruling could act as a catalyst rather than a standalone trigger.

Crypto market prediction

From a technical standpoint, the crypto total market cap (TOTAL) sits near $2.32 trillion after a sharp early-February decline toward the $2.1 trillion region. The daily RSI is hovering in the mid-30s, recovering from near-oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure is easing but momentum remains weak.

Crypto total market cap chart | Source: Crypto.News

More notably, TOTAL remains below both its 50-day SMA (around $2.82 trillion) and 200-day SMA (near $3.37 trillion). This indicates the broader structure is still corrective. Unless price reclaims the 50-day average, rallies may face resistance near the $2.6–$2.8 trillion zone.

In contrast, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading around 96.9, below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The downward slope of those averages signals continued dollar weakness.

U.S. Dollar Index chart | Source: Crypto.News

If DXY extends lower following the Supreme Court decision, it could provide breathing room for crypto to attempt a relief rally.

Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) performance will be critical. According to the latest data, Bitcoin continues to command the largest market share and has shown relative resilience compared to the broader altcoin market. $BTC was trading at $68,459 at press time, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum, while stabilizing near $2,000, remains more sensitive to risk sentiment shifts. If Bitcoin holds key support while $ETH regains momentum, it may signal improving internal strength.

Heading into Feb. 20, three scenarios stand out: a risk-off spike that briefly pressures crypto, a relief rally if dollar weakness continues, or choppy consolidation as traders await clarity.

With TOTAL near support and DXY trending lower, the market appears poised for a volatility expansion rather than a quiet reaction.

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