Can XRP price break the stubborn $1.07 barrier after multiple June failures?

$XRP has rebounded toward the stubborn $1.07 resistance after Ripple’s latest $XRP Ledger lending plans and rising network activity revived buying interest, but another breakout attempt now faces a level that repeatedly rejected bulls throughout June.

According to data from crypto.news, $XRP ($XRP) climbed nearly 5% from around $1.03 to an intraday high near $1.08 on July 2 before stalling at the same resistance level that repeatedly rejected buyers throughout late June.

The recovery followed Ripple’s announcement of an institutional-focused XRPL Lending Protocol alongside its monthly escrow release, where 300 million $XRP entered circulation while 700 million tokens remained locked. Because only a fraction of Ripple’s holdings reached the market, dilution concerns eased, and buyers stepped back in.

On-chain activity strengthened alongside the price recovery. Daily active addresses on the $XRP Ledger jumped more than 72%, while new wallet creation reached its highest level in roughly three months as investors accumulated after $XRP’s June decline.

Exchange balances also continued falling as coins moved into self-custody, reducing immediately available supply during the latest rally.

Historical seasonality has also added support. July has consistently ranked among $XRP’s strongest months over recent years, encouraging systematic traders to rebuild long exposure after the second quarter ended. The move also came as Bitcoin stabilized above $60,000, allowing capital to rotate back into several large-cap altcoins.

$XRP remains trapped below long-term resistance despite improving momentum

The 1-day chart shows $XRP still trading beneath every major moving average despite the latest bounce. The 20-day moving average sits near $1.11, followed by the 50-day around $1.21, the 100-day near $1.30, and the 200-day close to $1.49. A descending trendline connecting lower highs since May continues to cap every recovery attempt, leaving the primary trend bearish until those barriers are reclaimed.

$XRP daily price chart — July 2 | Source: crypto.news

On the 4-hour chart, however, buyers have regained short-term momentum. $XRP has pushed back above recent consolidation lows and is once again testing the $1.075-$1.08 resistance zone that rejected advances several times during June.

$XRP 4-hour price chart — July 2 | Source: crypto.news

The Supertrend indicator still remains bearish near $1.09, making that level the first confirmation hurdle before bulls can target the next resistance around $1.15. A successful break there could expose the declining 20-day average near $1.11 first before opening room toward $1.21.

Meanwhile, the Aroon indicator presents a mixed picture across timeframes. The daily chart still favors sellers, while the four-hour reading has shifted decisively toward buyers after Aroon Up surged to 100%, suggesting short-term momentum has strengthened even though the larger trend has yet to reverse.

Derivatives positioning also supports the importance of the current price zone. CoinGlass liquidation data shows one of the largest short liquidation clusters sitting between $1.08 and $1.10.

$XRP liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

A decisive move through that range could trigger forced buying from leveraged short positions and accelerate a squeeze toward $1.11 and potentially $1.15. On the downside, sizeable long liquidation pools remain concentrated around $1.03 and $1.02, making those levels important support if the breakout attempt fails.

Commenting on the current structure, analyst ChartNerd wrote in a July 2 X post:

“Relief is possible from this $1.00 low but the overall trend remains down for now.”

The analyst also noted that $XRP has historically remained under pressure after losing its 20-week exponential moving average and argued that reclaiming roughly $1.35 would be needed to restore a higher-timeframe bullish trend.

Failure at $1.07 would keep sellers in control

Several risks continue to challenge the recovery despite improving sentiment. $XRP remains roughly 70% below its July 2025 peak near $3.66 after months of restrictive monetary policy, weaker crypto market liquidity, and delayed regulatory progress in the U.S.

The postponement of the U.S. CLARITY Act removed one of the largest anticipated policy catalysts, while elevated Treasury yields have continued limiting capital flows into higher-risk assets.

Technically, another rejection near $1.07-$1.09 would reinforce the descending trendline that has controlled price action for nearly two months. A drop below $1.03 would expose the psychological $1.00 support once again, and losing that level could send $XRP toward the next demand zone around $0.98.

Conversely, a clean close above the Supertrend and repeated June highs would invalidate the immediate bearish structure and give buyers their strongest opportunity in weeks to extend the recovery toward $1.15 and then the cluster of moving averages above $1.20.

Source